Oil Shocks and Deficit

Analyze how sustained volatility in crude oil prices can influence a government's fiscal deficit trajectory, current account balance, and macro stabilization tools. Compare mechanisms such as revenue volatility, energy subsidies, strategic oil reserves, and exchange-rate transmission. Propose policy design features that cushion households and support growth without embedding structural deficits, using plausible macro-scenarios to illustrate the trade-offs between stabilization, growth, and debt sustainability.