Supply Shocks and Resilience

Analyze how a middle-income, export-oriented economy can stay resilient when manufacturing slows, trade balances improve for the wrong reasons, and inflation starts to cool. Break down the roles of supply-chain disruption, import compression, currency pressure, energy costs, and domestic demand. Then propose a practical resilience strategy for policymakers and firms, including early-warning indicators, diversification moves, and measures that protect jobs without stoking inflation.