Forecasting Under Compound Uncertainty

Some hazards are manageable on their own, but become much harder to forecast and respond to when they overlap or interact. Use the example of compound uncertainty to explain how governments, cities, and businesses should plan for intersecting shocks such as storms, supply disruptions, market swings, cyberattacks, or geopolitical risk. What forecasting methods, contingency reserves, and communication strategies work best when the range of outcomes is wide and confidence is low?